BISG TRENDS 2007: Book Industry in 'Good Shape'

The Book Industry Study Group (BISG) announced some of the key findings in its just-published study, Book Industry TRENDS 2007, to a SRO crowd on Friday, June 1, at BookExpo America. Michael Healy, executive director of BISG, hosted the presentation featuring Jeff Hayes, research director for InfoTrends, and Robert Wharton and Albert Greco, senior researchers at the Institute for Publishing Research.

All told, TRENDS 2007 estimates that total publishers' net revenues in 2006 reached $35.69 billion, an increase of 3.2 percent over 2005.

The presentation began with InfoTrends' Hayes, whose company was charged with providing BISG with data on smaller publishers. "The publishing industry is vibrant," he said. "And there is significant publishing activity by smaller publishers." Noting that recent technological innovations and other factors have led to a democratization of publishing, Hayes said that the industry today has a "very long tail. There are many more smaller publishers than larger publishers." InfoTrends research puts projected revenue for these smaller publishers at $12,474 million.

Following Hayes, Greco and Wharton discussed the methodology of their research and then Greco, who noted that the publishing industry is "overall in good shape," provided some of TRENDS key findings and predictions:

• In 2006, publisher's units were estimated to be 3.1 billion, an increase of 0.5 percent over 2005. In addition, domestic consumer expenditures on books increased by 3.3 percent to $53.6 billion from $51.9 billion.
  
  
• TRENDS estimates that adult trade net dollar sales increased 3.9 percent in 2006 to $9.1 billion, and they are projected to increase by 3.0 percent in 2007, and 2.4 percent in 2008.
  
  
• In the Juvenile Trade category, described as a "volatile market" by Greco, publishers' net dollar sales grew by 1.9 percent to $3.4 billion in 2006 from $3.3 billion in 2005, and they are expected to increase by 5.4 percent in 2007, and just 1.7 percent in 2008.
• The religious book segment showed the highest growth in dollar sales in 2006, with an increase of 5.6 percent in net revenue.
  
  
• Mass market paperback sold an estimated $1.9 billion in 2006, a 2.7 percent increase over 2005.
  
  
• Sales in the EL-HI market were estimated to be $4.7 billion in 2006, an increase of 1.0 percent over 2005, though BISG estimates that growth will jump by 7.3 percent in 2007; 6.9 percent in 2008; and 7.2 percent in 2009. These numbers do not include standardized tests, which grew by 2.0 percent in 2006 to $2.4 billion in net dollar sales.
  
  
• As for the college textbook segment, Greco warned that, because of college students' willingness to read electronic content, the used college textbook business could be "somewhat in trouble" by 2013.